The Cost Of Amnesty
Congressional Budget Office Should Forecast Long-Term Cost of Amnesty
With the Congressional Budget Office preparing to release a cost estimate for the Senate’s Gang of Eight bill in the coming days, a key Republican lawmaker yesterday insisted that any projection look beyond the 10-year budget window to fully understand the magnitude of granting amnesty to 11 million illegal immigrants.
Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL), ranking member on the Budget Committee, wrote to CBO Director Doug Elmendorf that it was crucial to have a long-term fiscal and economic analysis given the implementation timetable included in the Gang of Eight amnesty bill.
Not only is a longer forecast period required because the legislation contains phase-in periods that differ by visa classification, but the fiscal and economic effects will likely develop across the lifespan of those immigrants immediately affected by S. 744. I would strongly urge you to consider using your long-term fiscal and economic models. The Global Insight U.S. Macroeconomic Model, which I understand you license, comes in a long-term version with baseline forecasts extending just beyond 2040. I believe you are capable of adapting this model’s baseline to one that incorporates your economic assumptions.
Given the long time period over which the key elements of this bill are implemented, I cannot imagine a circumstance in which a 10-year scoring of S. 744 would be deemed adequate for guiding the policy decisions that Congress will confront. Thus, I would stress in the strongest possible terms that you should produce a fiscal score that extends beyond the current 10-year budget window. Continue reading
